Why Team USA will win gold ... or not

Both inside and outside the world of sports, sure things are extremely rare: All we can count on are death, taxes, fuel bills that make us scream, truth-bending politicians, and the Denver Nuggets underachieving in the playoffs. But starting on Sunday, the first step will be taken in what is guaranteed to be another iron-clad certainty — Team USA winning the gold in Beijing.

Here's why the American hoopers can't, and won't, lose:

Harmony: The players have bonded on a personal level simply because they love playing together. They are therefore united in their pursuit of a group goal that transcends any individual concerns. And they've also formed a mutually respectful relationship with the coaching staff. Positive team chemistry of this magnitude leads to unselfish play, which when parlayed with the outstanding passing abilities of nearly everyone on the team (except Michael Redd, Dwight Howard, Carlos Boozer and Chris Bosh) will generate scores of dunks, layups and open shots even against zone defenses.

Team speed and athleticism: These particular qualities contribute to a team-wide brilliance in broken-field situations. The likes of Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony, Tayshaun Prince, Dwyane Wade and Deron Williams are among the most exceptional finishers extant and can be counted on to produce the "easy" baskets that usually make the difference in tightly contested games.

Motivation: They are indeed the Redeem Team, eagerly accepting the responsibility for restoring the reputation of American basketball as being the best in the world. LBJ, Anthony, Wade and Boozer were all members of the squad that bombed out in Athens, and they can be counted on to keep the fires of revenge burning hot.

Also, relatively close wins in exhibition games against the Russians and the Australians will make certain that the Americans will take no opponent, no game, nor the outcome of any single play for granted.

Shooting: When the gold is up for grabs, their 3-point shooting will be more accurate than it was against the Aussies. Also, guys like Jason Kidd, Wade, Bryant, Williams and especially Chris Paul are quick enough to get into the seam of most zones, thereby forcing sufficient defensive adjustments as to create open mid-range shots for their teammates.

Depth: This will ultimately turn out to be the winning edge. Most international teams can go 7-deep before putting their less-talented and/or less-experienced players on the court — but Team USA has star-power from 1 to 12. Given the inevitability of opponents' starters getting into foul trouble, the Americans will have huge advantages for long stretches throughout the tournament.

What's more, the length of Team USA's bench will allow for tremendous versatility. They can play uptempo small-ball with Paul, Wade, Bryant, Anthony and James. And they can play power-ball with J-Kidd, Williams, James, Boozer and Howard.

Sure, a game or two might be close, i.e., a winning margin near 10 points, and a key player like LBJ or Kobe could get injured. Even so, there's no way this team can be stopped.

VOTE! Team USA is golden

Call it heresy if you will, but this version of Team USA seems just as vulnerable to an international upset as it's been since last winning the Olympics in 2000.

That's not to undermine the new process which gave managing director Jerry Colangelo carte blanche to put this team together. He worked tirelessly to get the best players. And who wouldn't be proud of a team that features Kobe Bryant with the best under-25 crew imaginable including LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Carmelo Anthony, Dwight Howard, Chris Paul and Deron Williams? Toss in the likes of hot-shot Michael Redd, talented young forward Chris Bosh, hulking Carlos Boozer, versatile Tayshaun Prince and aging point guard Jason Kidd, and it's certainly a who's who in the NBA.

And in the wake of the embarrassment that went down in Athens in 2004 between coach Larry Brown and the young bucks with their bronze medal, there was some logic in coaxing Mike Krzyzewski away from Duke to reel in this assemblage of young talent.

They should win gold and will be the odds-on favorite after a 5-0 exhibition record.

They just may not for a number of reasons, particularly after watching them struggle to an 11-point win over Australia, which didn't even have its best player, Andrew Bogut, who was resting a tender ankle.

They might just be too full of themselves, unless the lesson of 2004 still lingers.

Another is defense, which is only a rumor at this point. They rely completely on trapping with their athleticism and don't use sound fundamentals, which will allow the best international teams to drill holes in them from the perimeter. That's what killed them in 2004 when Greece prevented them from even reaching the gold-medal game.

That problem seemed to end in the FIBA Americas tournament last summer with Bryant and Kidd setting the tone with great ball pressure and nobody had a prayer against them. But Kidd hasn't played much (perhaps at 35 that slope is getting too slippery), and as talented as Paul and Williams are, they're more apt to slip into passing lanes than pressure the ball.

Furthermore, Kidd keeps everyone involved instinctively. Paul and Williams have superb passing ability, but they don't distribute the ball as consistently as he does. They have been surprisingly sloppy, as has James. Heck, 19-year-old point guard Patrick Mills ran circles around all of them for the Aussies.

Plus, they have no size other than Howard, with Boozer big but slow and the slim Bosh seems lost. Once they get past the likes of China and Angola to begin their quest, interior defense is going to be a problem when Spain, Germany, Greece and Argentina show up.

And lastly, it's still tough to figure out why Colangelo chose Krzyzewski instead of San Antonio Spurs coach Gregg Popovich, who not only is eminently more suited to coach a dozen NBA players, he is more experienced internationally.

Indeed, Team USA has the best talent, but are they the best team?

VOTE! Team USA is going down